BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 2 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Philly on big ESPN. DraftKings has some strong contests and that I look forward to pursuing the huge GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it a couple weeks back and I will try to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at the $30 prize, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
When I stack a fight in cash games I want a minimum of 100 total points. Ideally much more like 150 or more, but I will take 100-point floor together with all the guaranteed win. Together with Gaethje fights, we’re pretty much locked into that 100+ and we have seen his fights even total over 200 DK points. He’s the best style for accruing DraftKings points and should we utilize Edson too, then we are guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that all day. This is how I will be starting my cash lineup and I shall figure out the rest from there. I will take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in cash games. 1st place and 5th place get paid exactly the same at a 10-man double-up, therefore I am not shooting first and I would rather play with it safer with my money lineups.
GPP play of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play whatsoever but Barzola ought to be a terrific play when he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he has 36 takedowns. That’s exactly what we want on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points plus he can rack up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he’s for sure going to acquire a person $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has a lot of scoring potential I’d like to fade the chalk. I will likely be in accord with the field on ownership with my lineups, if not overweight.
Underdog play of the week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I like Waterson here since she’s the fighter who will be looking for takedowns in this fight. I believe she can find a few and she could be able to lock a entry if that’s how it is. That’s her ceiling in this struggle, but I like her for money games due to her floor. I really don’t see KK finishing Waterson, therefore I believe we get three full rounds of scoring out of her. In a loss she could put up 30-40 DK points and in cash games which is fine. I will use her in GPPs also, but I don’t believe she submits KK. I would guess she puts up about ~80 DK points at a decision win when she is ready to get the victory.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I am spreading my exposure out on most of the favorites this week in GPPs but Mazo is the only I am interested in the least. I think the only way she outscores her 8.8k salary is by getting another head kick KO. I really don’t think that is quite likely at all and I think a decision win is likely for her. I really don’t see her going for any takedowns or getting many/any knockdowns, therefore I do not see how she scores tremendously in a decision triumph. I have zero lineups with Mazo this week and if I was making 100 lineups I would still probably full fade . Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, however, she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) because May 19th on Premium Plays)