BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC debut so it is always nice once you are already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests are not the best, but there’s still a great deal of money to be won. I will personally be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I’ll be starting my cash lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is full of activity and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those kinds of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock in a win and get all the points in the best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will get the job done in cash games and we’ll get over 100 points with this battle. So, with that win locked in, we simply need to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s tough to need to pay $9.5k to get a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I believe that is what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we will get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his large salary, and he has an excellent shot at obtaining a 1st round triumph. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, I believe that you should get some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end inside this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and hope he’s beneath possessed.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy value play of this week. Presently, Fili is your betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I love taking that worth when it is available so that I presume he is in play in all formats. He will be popular in tournaments together with all the value we’re getting on himbut I am willing to consume that chalk and I do not want to get burnt by completely fading that worth. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to call, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic chance at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d favor MJ but not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t require a huge score from Fili so any win will likely do the trick. I am not going to pass on this respect and I think he is the easy underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my personal prejudice but I will not possess Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to strike. I think this is going to be a striking battle also and I think it’s going to be closer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I think we’ll need a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I really don’t see that occurring. If you do believe Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I’ll only be paying up someplace since I’m not sure he could get that finish and I wouldn’t be amazed if he even lost the struggle. I will say that I never seem to use Dober in DraftKings, therefore I could get burnt again here but I am going to stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln.
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