BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
There is a lot of money to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. I will be going heavier than normal this week chasing the big GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than normal. This is actually the first time we have observed a $30k top prize so I believe it is worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of this fight against Brian Ortega, thus we are down to 11 battles and we should observe a lot of ties with this card together with all the popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you’ll want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the rest of the area. With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass in money games and that makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he should be so highly owned it won’t even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider preventing the chalk there if you can. But with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of the week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I just chose Paul Felder because my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups did not have him and you merely need to be top ~50% of the area to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will be over 50% owned. When he loses, that’s half of the field that is dead with no chance at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just due to the mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50 percent of lineups, then you get a triumph with the low owned man to put you at a much better place of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting that $30k. Perry has the power to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Would it truly shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we’re looking for that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 decades ago, but today we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this fight standing for most the struggle and that will give him a huge edge. He is also dangerous on the floor himself and if he is taken I believe he is going to be able to get back up if he is not able to acquire a submission of his own. If Pettis can acquire a decision then I think he will pay off his DK cost and will be a good underdog to use so you can conserve salary on your lineups. I can even find this fight ending from Pettis falling Chiesa with a human body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the struggle, but I do not see him paying that large price tag. He does not fight at a heavy pace and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the ground is where he will have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I need at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I’ll have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below: